TOKYO -- Many of Japan's political and intellectual leaders remain committed to nuclear power even as Japanese public opinion has turned sharply against it. One argument in favor rarely gets a public airing: Japan needs to maintain its technical ability to make nuclear bombs."I don't think Japan needs to possess nuclear weapons, but it's important to maintain our commercial reactors because it would allow us to produce a nuclear warhead in a short amount of time," Shigeru Ishiba, a former defense minister, said in an interview in a recent edition of Sapio, a right-leaning twice-monthly magazine."It's a tacit nuclear deterrent," added Mr. Ishiba, an influential parliament member.Instead of sparking an outcry, his remarks seem to have stimulated further consideration of their merits. The Yomiuri newspaper, Japan's largest-circulation daily, urged the government to stay the course on nuclear power in an editorial, stressing that the country's stockpile of plutonium "functions diplomatically as a potential nuclear deterrent."Those holding the view appear to remain in the minority. The Japanese government says it is committed to its self-imposed Three Non-Nuclear Principles, a 1967 policy banning the production, possession and presence of nuclear weapons in Japan."We have absolutely no plans to change the existing policy based on the Three Non-Nuclear Principles, so that's the way we'll deal with things going forward," Minister of Defense Yasuo Ichikawa said in an interview last month.Most establishment figures who continue to back nuclear energy stress other reasons for support. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has endorsed keeping atomic power as a part of the country's energy mix, at least for several more decades, until alternative sources are developed. That stems from concern about electricity shortages, which could lead to blackouts and stifle economic growth.Abandoning nuclear power would also increase Japan's dependence on carbon dioxide-producing fossil fuels with volatile prices, according to the conventional wisdom in Kasumigaseki, Tokyo's bureaucratic hub.Recent public-opinion polls show the Japanese public turning against nuclear energy after the March Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. But even when support was high for commercial atomic use, surveys have shown the Japanese people were overwhelmingly against introducing nuclear weapons. Japan has long had a "nuclear allergy" due to its status as the only country against which nuclear weapons were used, in 1945 attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.Even though Japan has shown no sign of adopting nuclear weapons, many experts say Tokyo has the necessary raw materials -- thanks to a nuclear-fuel reprocessing program that produces enriched uranium and plutonium -- and the means of delivery in the form of government-subsidized commercial rockets, which they say are technically indistinguishable from ballistic missiles.Security experts point to some recent developments that have highlighted Japan's advanced technology, which could also be used to deliver a warhead. They note that Japan passed a law in 2008 allowing military applications in its outer-space programs, ending a 40-year ban limiting space development to commercial or research programs only.They also cite the Hayabusa government test satellite, which successfully landed on an asteroid before returning to Earth in June 2010. It employed the same type of atmospheric re-entry technology needed to guide ballistic missiles.Hayabusa's success as a civilian program is a point of pride for most Japanese. A big-budget movie currently playing in Japanese theaters, one of three motion pictures featuring the Hayabusa program, showcases the scientists' efforts but makes no mention of any possible military applications.Yet national-security hawks say that aspect is hiding in plain sight. "That's the behind-the-scenes reason Japan decided to develop Hayabusa," says Toshiyuki Shikata, a former lieutenant general in Japan's military. "It sent a quiet message that Japan's ballistic missile capability is credible."
No comments:
Post a Comment